Your own frost records from 3+ seasons outrank any climate model for your plot
As recorded: Three or more seasons of logged frost outcomes on a plot supersede modeled climatology there, as an offset from the model.
Promising If you skip this, it still grows, just less well. The planner suggests it.
How it works
Garden-scale microclimate (south wall, frost pocket, raised-bed drainage, urban heat island) lives below 800m resolution and below 80m. No gridded product resolves it. The season log is a direct measurement on the exact ground in question.
The evidence
Evidence: checked against 2 sources in the research-based literature. One more is waiting for a person to read it.
The 3 sources
… weather station temperature readings, often taken at local airports, most often do not reflect the temperature in a grower’s fields, especially in frost pockets. Growers should use their own thermometers
Generally, the corrections consisted of adding or subtracting a correction to the key station forecast. For example, a grower might subtract 0.5 °C from a key station forecast for a crop located in a low spot.
How this rule has changed
Every change is dated, newest first. The full record, with each reason, is in the data download.
- Grade changed to Promising
- Details updated
- A person read the sources and confirmed it
- Details updated
- Wording made clearer
- Added to the rules
Cite this page
Milpa Gardens. "Your own frost records from 3+ seasons outrank any climate model for your plot." Evidence grade: Promising. https://milpa.garden/rules/three-more-seasons-logged-frost-outcomes-plot/
A garden planner built on graded evidence. Every claim states its evidence grade and links its sources on the page. Cite it with the grade, and add the date you read it.
How we grade evidence
- Well established
- The rule names its mechanism and is settled, by sources a person has read and checked or by plain arithmetic and geometry.
- Promising
- The mechanism is named and the literature backs it. A few questions are still open.
- A good hunch
- Plausible by its mechanism, but field studies are thin, so treat it as a lean.
- Contested
- The evidence points both ways, or no study has tested it, so the planner does not enforce it.
- Refuted
- The claim did not survive its sources. It is kept so the folklore can be answered.